"While educators cannot change the out-of-school factors that may contribute to a students' decision to drop out, by focusing on improving students' academic performance they can reduce how much those nonacademic factors interfere with students' eventual educational success," according to a recent policy brief. Extensive research on identifying potential dropouts has found that there are reliable predictors as early as 4th-6th grades.

Many educators already target low-achieving students in an informal way, but an early-warning data system formalizes the process and makes the information understandable and actionable in a strategic way throughout a school, the brief says.

Researchers from the Everyone Graduates Center at Johns Hopkins University are currently working with more than 10 school districts to develop early-warning data systems.

Besides identifying indicators, it's important to set triggers--that is at what number, percent or in which grade is the indicator a stimulus for action? In Philadelphia, for example, in identifying factors that predicted a 75% chance of dropping out, researchers found that less than 80% attendance was the tipping point in 8th grade while less than 70% attendance was the tipping point in 9th grade.

Some examples of early-warning systems include:
Louisiana's Abbeville High School has developed an early-warning system and a 5-level intervention system that includes a program for all 9th-grade students known as the "freshman academy." At-risk students are identified every three weeks, using discipline, attendance, overall GPA, and decline in GPA as warning indicators. A progressively intensive series of interventions include mandatory tutoring, staff and student mentors, and increased communication with families. At the end of the 2008 school year, 90% of 9th graders were promoted to 10th grade

Chicago Public Schools is piloting an early-warning and intervention system in six of its high schools. Analyzing students' historical data, the central office provides each school with a list of at-risk students. The school then uses this information and other school-based data (extracurricular activities, parent engagement, academic and discipline records to develop individual intervention strategies that address four issues: parent engagement, connection to the school community, social and emotional support and academic support.

Using Early-Warning Data to Improve Graduation Rates: Closing Cracks in the Education System, policy brief, August 2008, Alliance for Excellent Education.